2011年12月22日
Beijing house
The housing price to income ratio measure of Beijing house price also has 20% drop space
Since the real income than in the 4 to 6 times more reasonable, so if beyond this standard is the housing bubble? Insiders said," 4 to 6 times" is a relatively common reference values, each country according to economic development level is different, the state of the housing market is different, show value is not the same, so can not mechanically apply this numerical.
Cause I love my family group vice president Hu Jinghui said, reasonable price and household income of more than, the world bank standard is 5: 1, the United Nations standard is 3: 1, in reality, the United States is 3: 1, Japan is 4: 1, the developed countries are the highest in Sydney 8.5: 1, New York 7.9: 1 : 1, London 6.9, Seoul 7.7: 1, Tokyo 7.9 : 1, 5 : 1. Considering that China is currently in the social transition, the characteristic of economic shunt period, the city changes a course accelerate, person much ground is little status, as well as market supply and demand proportion is unreasonable, so Chinese mainland prices reasonable interval, shall be the total family income 6-8 times.
Hu Jinghui said, in a family of three, two people of husband and wife 's annual gross income 200000 yuan as an example, 80 square meters of housing price range should be 120-160 million yuan, and the price of 1.5-2.0 million yuan / square meters, so, 1.7-1.8 million yuan / square meter will be a reasonable price point bit. Taking Beijing as an example, after a year of market regulation, the current Beijing new premises transactions fold to 19606 yuan / square meters, second-hand residential average price of 22018 yuan / square meters, accordingly, Beijing prices will have 10-20% space down.
Caution: simply apply the professional concepts easy to mislead the market
However, although house price to income ratio by the majority of property buyers and the industry's attention and recognition, but also the personage inside course of study on" real income than" application maintained a cautious attitude.
Huayuan Real Estate chairman Ren Zhiqiang believes that," real income than" seems to be a person who can understand the concept, but it has a strict definition, if simply apply a appear wrong concept, will be to judge the market to mislead. Ren Zhiqiang said, the" real income than" should take the calculation data is strictly defined, such as must use all the income of the median and mean, all of the housing area of the median and mean, all of the housing transaction price median rather than average, especially not only with a commercial housing the average market price, instead of calculating economic applicable housing, applicable housing policy enjoyment of economic housing, second-hand housing prices of the median or mean.
In addition, China has no strict personal income statistics, and more are working mainly include median wage income statistics, statistical and almost no various tradeable housing prices. These data are mostly depends on a number of comprehensive statistical computing, and some experts are not only simple to calculate, using a variety of average to estimation, natural difference distance real great. " In the absence of accurate median income statistics and the median price statistics before, housing price to income ratio easily become a misleading market and public tool, it is better to give up the house price to income ratio with other indicators." Ren Zhiqiang said.
Since the real income than in the 4 to 6 times more reasonable, so if beyond this standard is the housing bubble? Insiders said," 4 to 6 times" is a relatively common reference values, each country according to economic development level is different, the state of the housing market is different, show value is not the same, so can not mechanically apply this numerical.
Cause I love my family group vice president Hu Jinghui said, reasonable price and household income of more than, the world bank standard is 5: 1, the United Nations standard is 3: 1, in reality, the United States is 3: 1, Japan is 4: 1, the developed countries are the highest in Sydney 8.5: 1, New York 7.9: 1 : 1, London 6.9, Seoul 7.7: 1, Tokyo 7.9 : 1, 5 : 1. Considering that China is currently in the social transition, the characteristic of economic shunt period, the city changes a course accelerate, person much ground is little status, as well as market supply and demand proportion is unreasonable, so Chinese mainland prices reasonable interval, shall be the total family income 6-8 times.
Hu Jinghui said, in a family of three, two people of husband and wife 's annual gross income 200000 yuan as an example, 80 square meters of housing price range should be 120-160 million yuan, and the price of 1.5-2.0 million yuan / square meters, so, 1.7-1.8 million yuan / square meter will be a reasonable price point bit. Taking Beijing as an example, after a year of market regulation, the current Beijing new premises transactions fold to 19606 yuan / square meters, second-hand residential average price of 22018 yuan / square meters, accordingly, Beijing prices will have 10-20% space down.
Caution: simply apply the professional concepts easy to mislead the market
However, although house price to income ratio by the majority of property buyers and the industry's attention and recognition, but also the personage inside course of study on" real income than" application maintained a cautious attitude.
Huayuan Real Estate chairman Ren Zhiqiang believes that," real income than" seems to be a person who can understand the concept, but it has a strict definition, if simply apply a appear wrong concept, will be to judge the market to mislead. Ren Zhiqiang said, the" real income than" should take the calculation data is strictly defined, such as must use all the income of the median and mean, all of the housing area of the median and mean, all of the housing transaction price median rather than average, especially not only with a commercial housing the average market price, instead of calculating economic applicable housing, applicable housing policy enjoyment of economic housing, second-hand housing prices of the median or mean.
In addition, China has no strict personal income statistics, and more are working mainly include median wage income statistics, statistical and almost no various tradeable housing prices. These data are mostly depends on a number of comprehensive statistical computing, and some experts are not only simple to calculate, using a variety of average to estimation, natural difference distance real great. " In the absence of accurate median income statistics and the median price statistics before, housing price to income ratio easily become a misleading market and public tool, it is better to give up the house price to income ratio with other indicators." Ren Zhiqiang said.
Posted by yooyoo at 12:07│Comments(0)
